Thursday, August 11, 2011
The Problem of Evaluating Public School Teachers - 101
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Organizational Data and Management Assumptions-102
Engaging Employees 101
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Organization Data and Management Assumptions-101
Once upon a time I presented myself as a consultant to a large company which had nearly 300 stores spread around the SE states. I was told they needed a mathematical model which could more accurately predict sales, by store and by all stores. I asked how accurate their current model. It was ±15%, not very accurate. I asked the following questions:
How many stores, and which ones, were ‘county seat’ stores? (about 260)
2. Do these stores all carry the same inventory? (yes)
3. I noticed a flashy store of yours just down the street. How many of these stores are there?
(7) – Do they all have the same inventory – (Yes, but the store in Nashville does not)
At this point I could identify three different types of stores. (County seat, city, and stand-alone in Nashville)
The company produced the previous 4 years of sales data. I was to use the first three years to predict last year’s sales. The company wanted ±3% accuracy.
I divided all stores into the three groups. I achieved the desired accuracy on the first pass. Intrigued, I looked for the outliers (poorly predicted sales). I made a fourth group out of these. My prediction on all other stores was slightly better than ±1.75% accuracy!
I presented the results to my executive contact and he was ecstatic! I explained the outlier group by store name, and he responded to each one with a reason for its failure: “We have never understood this store,” “The manager was fired for excessive shrinkage,” and so on.
So you can see that assuming all stores perform like all others is counter productive – and not a good way to look at sales data. Even a 'simple' assumption with a rationale (like mine) is far better than not thinking about your problem.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
What is diversity?
Where do I stand on the subject of Diversity?
Everyone talks about diversity, but what does the term mean? I waited outside a classroom in which diversity was being taught (my class was in the same classroom during the following period). When the class ended I entered and passed pleasantries with the African-american instructor. I smiled and indicated I was a member of a minority. She stifled what appeared to be an offensive look, but she did ask in a confronting tone when she asked “And what would that minority be?” I responded, “I am an older person.” She could not disagree, but she was not convinced.
As a business consultant most of my working life, I was constantly faced with problems of diversity: some clients were classic rednecks, some were quite religious in their life’s considerations, some were greedy and self-absorbed, and some were complete jerks.
People have always referred to the “richness” of individual differences found in the USA. I agree, but it was only recently that I understood how individual differences, diversity considerations, and purpose – business, personal, team, etc. – were interrelated. As a subject matter expert in developing and building competent and productive teams, I should have had a proper view on the subject of diversity. I believe I did, but expressing the topic of diversity is now quite clear to me. Let me share it with you.
Diversity should not be limited to groups, rather diversity, as represented by the richness of the myriad individual differences around us, should be more reflective:
“The wide diversity of our many personal differences ought to be considered a rich source for leveraging those differences into solving many or most problems - personal, organizational, team or group, business, political, and problems in general.” (The parentheses are mine).